How can one luxury market be rated a seller's market in the same month its supply hit the highest level in the Valley?
That was the position of Scottsdale's upper tier in September 2026, the latest month with published data as this post goes out. The Institute for Luxury Home Marketing's October 2026 report put Scottsdale luxury single-family homes in the Seller's category for September. In the same month, ARMLS data published by Phoenix REALTORS showed that single-family homes priced at $633,000 and above in Greater Phoenix carried 5.0 months of supply, more than any lower price band.
Both figures are accurate. They describe a similar market speed and attach different labels to it. Once you see that, the more useful question is which homes in that pool are actually changing hands.
The Two Labels Run on Similar Clocks
The Institute's label rests on a sales ratio, which is one month's luxury sales divided by luxury inventory. At 21% or above it calls the market a seller's market. Between 12% and 21% it calls it balanced, and below 12% a buyer's market. In September 2026 Scottsdale's luxury single-family ratio was 24.0%.
ARMLS measures months of supply instead: inventory at month's end divided by the average monthly pending sales over the previous 12 months.
The two measures are built differently, but taking the reciprocal gives a rough translation. If 24% of inventory sells in a month, that pace would clear the shelf in a little over four months. By the same rough arithmetic, the Institute's 21% cutoff sits just under five months. A market clearing in a little over four months therefore falls in the Institute's seller's band, while a similar pace shows up in ARMLS tables as the most heavily supplied tier in the region.
| Yardstick | What it divides | Scottsdale / upper tier, September 2026 | What it implies |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILHM sales ratio | One month's sales by luxury inventory | 24.0%, Seller's | Roughly four-plus months to clear |
| ARMLS months of supply | Inventory by 12-month average pendings | 5.0 months, $633K+ single-family, metro-wide | Highest supply of any band |
The two rows cover different geographies and use slightly different inputs, so treat them as close rather than identical. Both point to a market turning over at a steady pace with ample supply.
The Deepest Pool Still Has Growing Demand
The ARMLS price-band tables add a second point. The top band has the most supply, and buyer demand there is still rising.
Across Greater Phoenix, rolling 12-month pending sales for single-family homes priced at $633,000 and above rose 2.1% from September 2025 to September 2026. The only other band to grow was the entry tier at $374,999 or less, up 4.2%. Pendings fell 3.9% in the $375,000 to $474,999 band and 1.5% in the $475,000 to $632,999 band. Meanwhile, single-family inventory in that top band rose 7.8%, from 7,057 to 7,608 homes.
| Single-family price band, Greater Phoenix | 12-month pendings, change YoY | Months of supply, Sept 2025 | Months of supply, Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $374,999 or less | +4.2% | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| $375,000 to $474,999 | -3.9% | 3.4 | 3.9 |
| $475,000 to $632,999 | -1.5% | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| $633,000 or more | +2.1% | 4.7 | 5.0 |
The top of the market has more sellers and more buyers than a year ago, and it is getting deeper rather than tighter. That fits a Phoenix Business Journal headline from October 11, 2026 reporting that North Scottsdale luxury home sales rose 24% over the past year, with the preview describing "a deeper pool of high-dollar buyers" adding to competition.
Scottsdale's citywide figures, which cover every price point, point the same way. Phoenix REALTORS data reported by AZ Big Media shows Scottsdale's year-to-date median rising 5.5%, from $1.185 million to $1.25 million, over the first nine months of 2026. Days on market fell from 90 in September 2025 to 80 in September 2026. The Scottsdale REALTORS September 2026 report counted 2,373 active listings, up 8.9% from August, and 925 new listings, up 25.7% from August, with 4.57 months of inventory and homes selling at 97% of list price.
The Gap Between Median List and Median Sold Shows Where the Supply Sits
If the pool is deep, the next question is which part of it is draining. The Institute's table gives a rough answer by setting the median luxury list price beside the median luxury sold price. These are two different groups of homes, active listings and closed sales, so the gap is not a negotiation discount. It shows how far the asking universe sits above the homes that actually close.
| Market, September 2026 | Median list | Median sold | Sold as share of list | ILHM market type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottsdale | $2,299,955 | $1,699,000 | About 74% | Seller's, 24.0% |
| Paradise Valley | $6,422,500 | $4,292,500 | About 67% | Buyer's, 11.1% |
| Fountain Hills | $2,742,000 | $2,500,000 | About 91% | Buyer's, 6.5% |
In Scottsdale the typical luxury sale closed about $600,000 below the typical luxury listing. Most of the supply sits in the higher ranges, and closings are concentrated lower down. Paradise Valley shows a wider gap and a 17-day median marketing time alongside its Buyer's label: the homes that sell move quickly, and much of the inventory above them stays on the market. One month of data in a market that small moves around a lot, so read that as a September snapshot, not a trend. Fountain Hills is a third case, with asking and sold medians close together but a slow sales ratio.
The table also shows that Scottsdale's strength is in detached homes. Scottsdale's luxury attached segment, meaning condos and townhomes, rated only Balanced in September, at a 15.4% ratio, a $920,500 median list and an $825,000 median sold. In its broader commentary, the Institute links the luxury preference for detached homes to privacy, space, land and adaptable living. Land is part of the story too. A Phoenix Business Journal headline from October 18, 2026 reports that values in Scottsdale's Cactus Corridor have climbed 300% in six years, with developers concentrating on its flat, usable lots.
Why the Metro's 40% Headline Doesn't Carry Over
The figure that drew attention this month came from the wider region. Greater Phoenix single-family pending sales fell 40.1% year over year in September 2026, from 4,830 to 2,892. The metro median slipped 2.1% to $475,000, and months of supply rose to 4.3 from 4.0.
That drop covers one month. Year to date, metro pending sales were down only 2.2% and closed sales were up 2.9%. Phoenix REALTORS reports that mortgage rates rose above 7% late in September after averaging 6.67% in August. Board president Sammy Glassman told AZ Big Media that "when rates keep moving, it can cause people to pause before making a major financial decision."
At the upper end, the 12-month trend kept rising through that same September. The Institute's commentary cautions that affluent buyers still weigh borrowing costs, opportunity cost and ownership expenses, and may negotiate harder or ask for concessions even when they buy with cash or equity. Concessions also don't appear in the headline price figures. Phoenix REALTORS notes that its list-price-received measure does not account for them. In its September coverage, InBusiness PHX reported that sellers are using concessions such as rate buydowns to address affordability.
What This Changes for a North Scottsdale Buyer
In a deep market moving at about four months' pace, a buyer's leverage depends on the individual home, not on the label attached to the city. Some practical questions follow from the data:
- Where does the home sit relative to the sold median? In September 2026 Scottsdale's luxury sales were centered near $1.7 million. A listing well above that is competing in the thickest part of the supply.
- Is it detached or attached? The two segments rated differently in the same month, so a condo search and an estate search can face different conditions within the same city.
- What does the lot offer? Recent reporting on Cactus Corridor values points to usable land as part of what the market is paying for.
- What did comparable homes close at once concessions are counted? List-price ratios leave concessions out, so the comparison that matters is net proceeds against net proceeds.
A Few Questions We Hear Often
Is Scottsdale luxury a seller's market right now? By the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing's September 2026 reading, yes, at a 24.0% sales ratio. That ratio implies roughly four months of supply, so the label describes a steady pace rather than a shortage.
Why did Paradise Valley rate as a buyer's market? Its September 2026 ratio was 11.1%, below the Institute's 12% line, even though the median marketing time was 17 days. Its median list price was about $2.1 million above its median sold price, which suggests the homes that sold sat well below most of the active supply.
When will October figures be available? The ARMLS September report published by Phoenix REALTORS is marked current as of October 3, 2026, and the Institute's October issue covered September activity. October results will follow the same monthly cycle.
If you are weighing a North Scottsdale estate or homesite and want to know where a specific property sits against the homes that are actually closing, Bob Nathan Team AZ can walk you through the comparable sales, net of concessions, before you write an offer. Request a private consultation.
